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Stripe Economics

Internet economics data and analysis, from Stripe.

In a previous post, we argued that AI appears to be behind a significant increase in entrepreneurship, particularly among solopreneurs. Part of the reason is that AI fills the capability gaps that used to require other people with complementary skills. One possible implication of this is that cities—where people go to meet other people—could become less valuable in the age of AI.
This debate has played out before. During the COVID-19

8 days ago

Stripe Economics

Recent academic research is coalescing around the finding that AI tools drive real productivity gains at the worker or firm level. LLMs or AI assistants have been found to make customer service agents 14% more productive on average (Brynjolfsson et al. 2023), and writers 40% faster, with writing increasing in quality (Noy and Zhang 2023). Consultants using LLMs see a 12% increase in tasks completed and a 25% reduction

43 days ago

www.stripeeconomics.comAI and productivityThe story in the data so far (briefly)

Stripe Economics

In our last post, we covered the surge in solopreneurship in the US, and one reader had a good provocation.
UK statistics show business creation flat or even declining over the past 2 years. Is the UK really falling behind or is something else afoot? In this appendix to our last post, we triangulate across Stripe data and public statistics, and conclude that the UK is likely seeing its own business formation boom that government

53 days ago

www.stripeeconomics.comIs the UK missing out on the solopreneur boom?Government statistics would say yes, Stripe data suggests otherwise

Stripe Economics

We posted a Substack Note earlier today about what we see in the Stripe data on European air conditioning spending:
https://www.stripeeconomics.com/p/revealed-willingness-to-pay-for-ac

60 days ago

Stripe Economics

The US Census Bureau counts businesses as well as people. Four years ago, it made a major change to its business methodology. Until 2022, the Census Bureau assumed that businesses over a given revenue threshold must have employees. Even if a business declared itself a solo enterprise, it was automatically reclassified as an employer when it hit a certain income threshold.
By the early 2020s, these assumptions started creaking. The Census Bureau noticed that solo operators in some sectors were

74 days ago

www.stripeeconomics.comThe age of the solopreneurMore solo founders, growing faster, powered by AI

Stripe Economics

Sessions is Stripe’s annual customer conference. This year, John Collison’s keynote covered Stripe’s perspective on the evolving AI and agentic economy. Here are a few charts I found particularly compelling—including some that didn’t make it into the final cut.
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The rise of solopreneurs
New business applications are rising worldwide. In the United States, where the Census Bureau tracks filings with enough granularity to

108 days ago

www.stripeeconomics.comSolopreneurs, Solow, and the SaaSpocalypseFour of my favourite charts from Stripe Sessions

Stripe Economics

One of the biggest uncertainties in labor markets today is whether AI will displace human work at scale. The overall evidence so far is mixed and preliminary. Labor markets—complex under normal conditions—are even more so during technological shocks.
Some occupations, like radiologists, have proven more resistant to technological displacement than expected

136 days ago

Stripe Economics

“K-shaped” entered the macro lexicon during the pandemic to describe recoveries in which an upper cohort of the best performers is accelerating further away from a stagnating lower cohort. The term has reemerged as a popular lens for the recent economy. Embedded are two distinct hypotheses: that corporate profits and financial market returns are becoming increasingly concentrated;

171 days ago

www.stripeeconomics.comK-shaped economy?Yes on Wall Street, not yet on Main Street